Assumption Prioritisation

What the framework is

Assumption prioritisation ranks the beliefs a plan rests on, so you test the riskiest ones first instead of the easiest. The template compares assumptions on five criteria: Uncertainty, Business Impact, Testability, Urgency and Cost of Being Wrong. The criteria can be changed, added to and weighted.

What the result looks like

When it earns its place

Use it at the start of a new product, service, venture or strategy, when the plan depends on things nobody has checked yet: that customers will pay, that a partner will sign, that a process will scale.

The trap is testing what is easy to test. The assumptions worth testing first are the ones that are both uncertain and expensive to get wrong, even when they are hard to test.

How to run it with a group

1. List the assumptions as statements that could be false, such as "Teams will pay monthly for this".
2. Agree the weights. Uncertainty and Cost of Being Wrong usually matter most.
3. Participants compare the assumptions two at a time on each criterion. Participants do not need an account to respond. Three to six options keep it manageable: with five options and five criteria, each person makes 50 comparisons.
4. Read the overall ranking. Design a test for the top two or three, and run the ranking again once the results are in.

More templates like this

• ICE Scoring

  Prioritise options by Impact, Confidence and Ease. The criteria can be changed, added to and weighted.

• Multi-Criteria Analysis

  Prioritise options across five criteria: Impact, Feasibility, Cost-effectiveness, Equity, and Political Acceptability. The criteria can be changed, added to and weighted.

• RICE Prioritisation

  Prioritise options by Reach, Impact, Confidence, and Effort. The criteria can be changed, added to and weighted.

• Value vs Effort

  Prioritise options by Value versus Effort to surface quick wins and avoid time sinks. The criteria can be changed, added to and weighted.

• WSJF

  Prioritise by Cost of Delay (User & Business Value, Time Criticality, Risk Reduction & Opportunity) against Job Size. The criteria can be changed, added to and weighted.

• Jobs To Be Done

  Prioritise the customer needs, frustrations, and outcomes that matter most. Useful for innovation, product strategy, service improvement, and customer research. The criteria can be changed, added to and weighted.