Strategy and analysis
Scenario Planning
Compare strategies and actions across different possible future conditions. Useful for long-term planning, resilience, uncertainty management, and strategic foresight.
What the framework is
Scenario planning prepares an organisation for several possible futures, instead of betting on one forecast. You pick the uncertainties that matter most, build a few plausible futures from them, and test your plans against each. Shell made the method famous in the 1970s, when its scenarios helped it respond to the oil shocks faster than its rivals.
What the result looks like
Optimistic Future
Resource-Constrained Future
Climate Stress Future
High-Regulation Future
When it earns its place
Use it for long-range strategy, large investments, or when the environment is shifting and forecasts disagree. Groups argue most about which uncertainties and scenarios deserve the work. This template ranks the step after that: which responses suit each scenario. The trap is the "best case, worst case, middle case" trio. It collapses into one forecast with error bars, and plans get tested against nothing new.
How to run it with a group
- Collect the forces of change first; a PESTLE is a good source.
- Read the four scenarios the template sets out, and adapt their wording to your situation.
- For each scenario, list four to six responses you could make.
- Participants work through the scenarios one at a time. In each, they compare the responses two at a time. Participants do not need an account to respond.
- Look for responses that rank high in every scenario: those are robust, so start them now. A response that wins in only one scenario is a contingency; note the early signal that would trigger it.